常规导弹战前运输任务优化模型

制定常规导弹战前运输计划时,各车辆运输时间和运输路线的安排是一个组合优化问题.运用军事运筹学和不确定性优化理论,充分考虑节点冲突性、车辆隐蔽性、任务时间、道路容量等因素,建立了运输任务方案的优化模型.该研究为常规导弹波次作战计划的制定和优化提供模型支持,有助于提高常规导弹作战指挥自动化和部队的生存能力.     

普通建筑用钢与耐火钢火灾高温力学性能对比研究

钢材的高温力学性能是建筑结构耐火设计的重要参数。介绍了耐火钢的特点,通过试验对普通建筑用钢与两种耐火钢从常温到700℃高温的力学性能进行了对比研究,结果表明:温度在400~700℃之间,耐火钢的强度折减系数比普通建筑用钢高出很多;以钢材常温屈服强度的50%为破坏标准,普通建筑用钢与两种耐火钢的临界温度分别为550℃、650℃、660℃。     

超视距反舰导弹射击方式优化选择

射击方式的选择是反舰导弹作战使用的重要内容。在超视距作战需求的牵引下,传统视距反舰导弹的射击方式受到了巨大挑战。为优化选择超视距反舰导弹的射击方式,建立了两种常用射击方式的导弹捕捉概率模型和目标机动模型,给出一种典型条件不同目标机动航向的导弹捕捉概率,结果表明采用有前置量方式射击无法有效提高超视距导弹的捕捉概率,甚至在某些典型条件下还低于无前置量方式射击的捕捉概率,指出无前置方式是超视距反舰导弹射击的优选方式。     

基于多Agent的编队导弹攻击火力分配的优化研究

目前解决火力分配优化问题的更多的是运用静态的数学模型,忽略了作战是一个激烈对抗的过程.为了更全面地研究编队导弹攻击分配的优化问题,提出了一种基于多Agent的编队导弹攻击火力分配仿真优化研究的方法.首先建立了舰艇Agent的模型,研究了Agent的演化模型,建立了基于Agent的火力分配的优化模型.通过Agent自身的演化,从而达到整个编队导弹攻击的火力分配决策的优化目的.最后给出了仿真试验,对仿真结果数据的分析,验证了方法的可行性.     

India’s emerging space assets and nuclear-weapons capabilities

ABSTRACT

Over the last five decades, India’s nuclear and space programs have gone through several phases, from collaboration to divorce to supportive. An interplay of two factors determined the nature of the relationship. One was the state of India’s nuclear-weapon program. The second was international conditions, especially India’s relationship with the nuclear-nonproliferation regime. In the early decades, because of the rudimentary nature of India’s nuclear and space programs, the relationship was collaborative, since the rocket technology being developed was a necessary adjunct to the nuclear-weapon program. Subsequently, as India’s rocketry capabilities and nuclear-weapon program began to mature and concerns about international sanctions under the non-proliferation regime began to grow, the two programs were separated. The Indian rocketry program was also divided, with the civilian-space and ballistic-missile programs clearly demarcated. After India declared itself a nuclear-weapon state in 1998 and the programs matured, the relationship has become more supportive. As the two programs mature further, this relationship is likely to deepen, as the nuclear-weapon program requires space assets to build a robust and survivable nuclear deterrent force.     

ISIS’s Warfare Functions: A Systematized Review of a Proto-state’s Conventional Conduct of Combat Operations

This article gives an overall assessment of ISIS’s conventional conduct of combat operations by examining their warfighting functions patterns. In sum, the approach of ISIS comprised fundamental principles: their weapons can be organized into categories, purposeful combination of these forces in keeping with the concept of combined arms combat, and hierarchical command and control executed by experienced commanders. ISIS combat groups combined the elements of formation and firepower as well as movement and mobility. The paper concludes that ISIS obviously had a vast range of conventional capabilities at its disposal and was thus able to conduct major operations.     

French Arms Exports and Intrastate Conflicts: An Empirical Investigation

The aim of this article is to evaluate how French Major Conventional Weapons (MCW) exports impact on the conflict intensity of recipient countries. The recent increase in French arms exports seems to contradict the French political discourse on the promotion of regional stability. We run zero-inflated ordered probit model in order to analyze the role of the arms trade on the intensity of civil conflicts in 144 countries from 1992 to 2014, using SIPRI and UCDP/PRIO data. Our results suggest that French MCW exports tended not to exacerbate intrastate conflicts during this period. This finding is robust to changes in the empirical framework. We propose two lines of explanations: France seems to be prone to choosing partners that respect human rights and selling more ‘defense-oriented’ MCW than the rest of the world.     

A nuclear-armed North Korea without ICBMs: the best achievable objective

This article analyzes the North Korean nuclear crisis from a balance-of-power perspective. It is in the long-term interests of international peace for a secure and independent North Korea to serve as a buffer between US and Chinese ground forces. However, the conventional military advantage of the South Korean-American alliance over North Korea has grown drastically since the end of the Cold War, threatening North Korea’s survival. Since North Korea lacks any reliable ally, nuclear weapons represent its most cost-effective way to restore a balance of power and thus secure itself. Accepting security guarantees in exchange for its nuclear arsenal is rhetorically appealing but not a viable approach. North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, has overcompensated for the post-Cold War imbalance, inviting talk in Washington of waging a preventive war. Persuading North Korea to give up its ICBM capability, not its nuclear arsenal, should therefore be the primary objective of US diplomacy.     

基于Floyd算法的常规导弹连续波次作战运输规划

为提高常规导弹连续波次作战效能，对常规导弹连续波次作战运输规划问题进行研究。以Floyd算法为基础，首先生成了作战机动区域的交通网络最短路径、距离矩阵；其次将常规导弹连续波次作战运输过程分解为不同阶段，以运输过程中的整体暴露时间最短为目标，构建了初始规划方案0-1整数规划模型；然后考虑道路通行量及地域容量限制，对初始规划方案中存在的地域容量超过限制及单行道路中会车、超车情况进行逐步循环优化，以得到最佳运输规划方案；最后选择了一个作战案例想定，通过Matlab编程对案例进行了求解，得到了针对此案例的最佳运输规划方案，验证了模型的正确性和算法的有效性。